Business Cycle Watch #3 Indicators' divergence
What was seemingly inevitable became real, the Treasury yield curve has inverted. Even though, almost all coincident US indicator signals
The Good Side of Quantitative Tightening
Sucking reserves out of the system can be healthy and expansionary. I'm sure many will find this statement surprising and
All about collateral and reserves
Financial media is obsessed with the Fed and everything they do or say, especially if it is labeled as "quantitative"
Business Cycle Watch #2: Demand accelerates, supply-chain problems persist
Second month of 2022 may be the turning point of the global recovery. There are signs of a slowing pace
B. Eichengreen (2019), Globalizing Capital
Book notes.Comment: To me this book is the most comprehensive record of the history of the global monetary system.
Business Cycle Watch #1: Rate hikes on the horizon despite a bleak long-term market prognosis
As we step into the second month of '22, markets and analysts get more and more confident in multiple Fed
Transitory or Permanent? The roots of the post-pandemic inflation
This is not the first time when we've got a heated debate over the causality of inflation. In fact, the